Week 5 was a good week for the Consensus Cash picks except for WR where you needed to dip down into the GPP considerations to find the better plays. The Overall Leaderboard also gets a little bit of a shakeup with a tie for the top spot between FantasyTeamAdvice and GoingFor2. Meanwhile, the top DFS […]
It was a brutal week for the NFL Handicappers as a whole in Week 5 with an overall record of 77-105-5 (43.3%). They went 66-91-4 (42.0%) on ATS and 11-10-1 (52.4%) on Totals. The top handicapper of the week with more than one pick was the ActionNetwork with its Sharp Report – Reverse Line Movement […]
Week 5 brings us eight consensus bets where the handicappers agree more often than not with five favorites, two dogs and one over. The Consensus Bets have finished with two winning weeks, one losing week and pretty much broke even last week with a 3-3-1 record.
In this series, we will publish a consensus of Handicapper Picks against the spread and totals where we pay for the premium picks and take the time and effort to accumulate them, so you don’t have to. This week we pulled picks from 16 expert sites and 43 different handicappers to get our consensus betting selections. Picks make the Consensus list if they receive at least four more selection on one side than the other side. We will also be grading handicappers throughout the season.
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Here is the NFL Handicapper Consensus list for Week 5…
The NFL season goes rolling into Week 5 with a 12-game Sunday main slate. With scoring up around the league this week is expected to continue the trend with numerous games featuring a 50+ Vegas point total including the Falcons/Steelers matchup with a huge 57-point number. As you would expect there are plenty of plays on the Consensus list from that matchup, but which other games and players are the experts into on Sunday? Also, be sure to check out our new split out Cash game and GPP sections for each position along with projected ownership percentages.
In this series, we will publish a consensus of NFL DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that have been recommended by at least two experts.
This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.
Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 5…
Bring on Week 5! Last week started out well, things were looking good and then Alvin Kamara went crazy in the second half against the Giants and I had far too little exposure to him throughout my lineups. Sure, there were some good calls also like Andrew Luck, who I didn’t see much traction on around the industry, but I was completely sold on last week and he produced with the second highest DK score among QBs.
Of course, the great thing about NFL DFS is you can immediately move on to the next week where there is a new puzzle to put together. This week has two teams on bye (Bears/Bucs) which still gives us plenty of options to choose from so let’s get it.
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
| Team | QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | TE | D | Vegas |
| Indianapolis Colts | 49 | 43 | 71 | 46 | 31 | 42 | 35 | 51 |
| New England Patriots | 57 | 59 | 66 | 69 | 39 | 62 | 57 | -10.5 |
The Colts are coming off a tough overtime loss to the Texans and now must go on the road in a short week to face the Patriots. As if the Colts didn’t have enough to worry about they will also be without numerous of their key offensive players with T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack and Jack Doyle ruled out. The Patriots have had an average pass defense so far this season allowing just 237.5 passing yards (8th) and 2.0 TD passes (20th) per game this season with a 17th DVOA against the pass. Andrew Luck should have some success passing the ball but to who is the big question. Eric Ebron has received double-digit targets in two straight weeks, but the Patriots rank 2nd DVOA against the TE, so look for the targets to be more spread out amongst the remaining WRs options and RB Nyheim Hines, who has two receiving TDs last week and faces a Patriots defense that ranks 27th DVOA against pass-catching RBs. The Colts should be able to gain some yardage on the ground with Hines and Jordan Wilkins as the Patriots allow 4.55 YPC (25th) to opposing RBs but the chances of a rushing score are low.
The Patriots got back on track last week with a blowout win over the Dolphins and will be at home for the second straight game on a short week against the Colts. The Patriots welcome Julian Edelman back into the fold but could be without Rob Gronkowski due to injury. Regardless of who is on the field catching passes from Tom Brady, he should have some success moving the ball through the air as the Colts have allowed 291 passing yards (22nd) per game, however, they have been stingy in the red zone allowing just 1.3 TD passes (4th) per contest this season. The best path to success through the air should be to RB James White out of the backfield as the Colts have allowed 8.6 receptions for 60.3 yards (27th) to opposing backs this season. Also, look for Edelman to have an immediate connection with Brady working out of the slot with potentially a big play to Josh Gordon. The running game will be led by rookie Sony Michel but could have limited success as the Colts rank 8th DVOA against the run and are allowing just 3.62 YPC (10th) to opposing RBs.
Hot Picks:
The handicappers as a whole held their own ATS (Sides) this week finishing just over break-even at 53.6% but had trouble on the Totals with a poor 25% win rate. The top handicapper for Week 4 was Micah Roberts from Sportline who went 4-0-2. He also shows up near the top of all the year-to-date […]
We have reached about the quarter-way mark of the NFL season with four weeks of results behind us and the Overall Leaderboard is starting to take shape. GoingFor2 continues to lead the way on the season, followed by FantasyTeamAdvice. However, Week 4 was owned by DFSArmy and Sportsline, who are both coming on strong. On […]
Welcome to the Week 4 NFL Handicapper Consensus! Last week the Handicapper Consensus posted a solid 5-3 (62.5%) record. This week there are seven games that the handicappers are recommending.
In this series, we will publish a consensus of Handicapper Picks against the spread and totals where we pay for the premium picks and take the time and effort to accumulate them, so you don’t have to. This week we pulled picks from 16 expert sites and 44 different handicappers to get our consensus betting selections. Picks make the Consensus list if they receive at least three more selection on one side than the other side. We will also be grading handicappers throughout the season.
This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up!
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Here is the NFL Handicapper Consensus list for Week 4:
For Week 4 of the NFL season, we are experimenting a little bit with the format of the Weighted Consensus Rankings. There are two main changes.
To show off the new format the QB recommendations for this week will be free. Sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to get the rest of this great industry snapshot.
Hope you enjoy the new format and feel free to follow us and respond on Twitter @DailyOverlay or email any comments or questions to management@dailyoverlay.com.
In this series, we will publish a consensus of NFL DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that have been selected by at least two experts.
This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.
Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 4…
Cash
| Name | Team | Pos | Price | Cash% | GPP% | Total Count | Rank Score |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | QB | $ 5,400 | 27% | 18% | 13 | 44.86 |
| Deshaun Watson | HOU | QB | $ 6,300 | 25% | 16% | 11 | 41.46 |
| Drew Brees | NO | QB | $ 6,600 | 19% | 11% | 9 | 34.14 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | QB | $ 6,100 | 15% | 10% | 8 | 30.43 |
GPP
| Name | Team | Pos | Price | Cash% | GPP% | Total Count | Rank Score |
| Philip Rivers | LAC | QB | $ 6,500 | 9% | 8% | 6 | 20.91 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | QB | $ 5,200 | 6% | 6% | 4 | 15.28 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | QB | $ 6,800 | 4% | 5% | 3 | 11.99 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | QB | $ 5,600 | 4% | 5% | 3 | 10.95 |
| Andrew Luck | IND | QB | $ 5,500 | 4% | 5% | 3 | 9.84 |
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | QB | $ 5,500 | 2% | 4% | 2 | 7.76 |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | QB | $ 5,300 | 2% | 4% | 2 | 7.00 |
| Eli Manning | NYG | QB | $ 5,600 | 4% | 5% | 3 | 6.85 |
| Derek Carr | OAK | QB | $ 5,100 | 2% | 4% | 2 | 6.24 |
The College Football season rolls on with a 10-game DFS main slate on Saturday, September 29th.
UPDATED – Added additional CFB DFS experts that provided picks overnight.
In this series, we will publish a consensus of College Football DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that have been recommended by at least two experts.
This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.
DailyOverlay Single Pick of the Week – RB Travis Etienne (CLEM)
Here is the CFB DFS Weighted Consensus list for September 29th
We head into Week 4 and there are already two teams on bye (Redskins/Panthers). My NFL Hot Sheet DFS plays haven’t graded out as well as I had hoped so far this season but as we continue to get more data for this season, the stronger the Hot Sheet will get.
It should be an interesting week with two DFS-friendly teams (Vikings/Rams) playing each other on Thursday night and Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Monday night, that is a lot of the fantasy stars from the first few weeks who are not available on the Sunday main slate. Don’t worry there are still plenty of “hot” plays available.
My bets for last week produced a decent 4-3 (57.1%) record putting me at 10-9 (52.6%) for the season.
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…
| Team | QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | TE | D | Vegas |
| Minnesota Vikings | 41 | 51 | 26 | 24 | 53 | 55 | 35 | 48.5 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 46 | 57 | 34 | 41 | 26 | 45 | 52 | -7 |
The Vikings have a short week coming off one of the biggest stinkers in NFL history after they were shellacked by the Bills. They travel to LA to face the 3-0 Rams, but it could be a good bounce-back spot for the Vikings as the Rams will likely be without both of their starting cornerbacks. So, despite a 2nd DVOA ranking against the pass this season, look for Kirk Cousins and company to find some success in the passing game. Of course, the primary targets will continue to be their top two WRs, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, with Digg, in particular, getting a more favorable matchup due to the injuries to the Rams corners. Kyle Rudolph could also be an option as the Rams have allowed 89 yards per game (29th) to TEs this season. The Vikings running game could be tricky depending on the availability of Dalvin Cook who looks like a game-time decision. The Rams do allow 4.93 YPC (28th) to opposing RBs this season.Even if he plays, his snap count and touches are at risk, especially if the Vikings fall behind as a touchdown underdog. Probably not worth the chance outside of a GPP or Showdown lineup.
The undefeated Rams have won three straight games by double-digits but will face their toughest test in Week 4 with the Vikings coming to town. The Vikings also have the best defense that the Rams have faced as they rank 9th DVOA against the pass. Jared Goff should have the most success throwing to RB Todd Gurley as the Vikings rank 29th DVOA against pass-catching backs. Of the WR trio, look for Cooper Kupp in the slot and Robert Woods lining up away from Xavier Rhodes to have the best matchups. The Vikings also have solid run defense allowing just 3.65 YPC (10th) to opposing backs while not allowing a rushing TD to a RB yet this season. Gurley gets enough volume to still be viable, especially with his involvement in the passing game.
Hot Picks:
It has been a rollercoaster ride for the handicappers through the first three weeks of the NFL season. It’s almost like the Three Bear’s story. Week 1 was too hot, Week 2 was too cold and Week 3 was just right. Well, I guess it doesn’t exactly fit because who is going to complain about […]