Entries by Stephen Monahan

NFL Value Index – Wild Card Week

While I cherish the NFL regular season, the next two weeks are some of the best sports on television.

I love the first two weeks of the NFL playoffs. Two games on Saturday, then two games on Sunday.

It’s the most wonderful time of the year (until MLB Opening Day).

On the surface, there appears to be some obvious teams that could smash, and Vegas believes it to be true.

The four games this week are (in order of play Sat-Sun):

Tennessee at Kansas City, Atlanta at LA Rams, Buffalo at Jacksonville and Carolina at New Orleans.

And injury news and its results could greatly impact the slate, and open up a ton of value.

The news you should be monitoring closely regarding injuries are that of LeSean McCoy, Devonta Freeman and to an extent, DeMarco Murray.

If Shady can’t go, Mike Tolbert and Marcus Murphy become awesome value plays despite facing the Jags.

If Devonta can’t go, Tevin Coleman becomes the value play of the slate, hands down.

Unfortunately, we likely won’t know what to make of these two running backs before the first game Saturday. We have to prep for Devonta’s potential absence and McCoy’s. As for Murray, I just can’t see him playing two weeks after suffering a third-degree tear of his MCL. Derrick Henry showed why he’s clearly the better RB anyway in Week 17.

You will likely have to organize your lineups to be able to swap to adjust to the injury reports this week, so keep that utility spot flexible on DraftKings. As for the no swap sites, I won’t be touching them.

This week’s Index will focus more on who will be the basis of my lineups rather than identifying any actual value plays. Without further ado, here’s the guys I will have the most weight on in the Wild Card round.

Todd Gurley – RB – Los Angeles Rams – $9,700

Analysis: I guess there’s always an argument for fading Gurley in any tournament, but with 4 games and a fade, you will be well behind the pack if he goes off. I am not really sure where to pinpoint Gurley’s ownership this week considering his price. If his name were Le’Veon Bell, I would certainly think it would be an automatic plug and play for most people. However, there’s not a lot of value at the moment so cuts may need to be made. In cash games, Gurley, a run-heavy, pass-catching back against the Falcons, who are a sieve for pass-catching backs, face off this week in the Rams first playoff game for a lot of the players on their team. I think you have to factor in the experience of the Super Bowl-run experienced Falcons and a bunch of guys new to the stage. However, the Rams have a coach who I think we all need to trust for fantasy purposes and they are going to lean on what got them to this point, and that’s the man chomping on the cheeseburger in the .gif above. He’s the No. 1 RB on the slate and a guy I will be overweight on.

Leonard Fournette – RB – Jacksonville Jaguars – $7,500

Analysis: My second favorite running back (and yes over Kamara/Ingram) is Mr. Fournette. He’s a 3-down, goalline back who can catch passes out of the backfield. The Jags are the easy favorites in a home game against a Bills squad that back-doored their way into the postseason. The Bills may be without Shady McCoy, too. Now Blake Bortles can always torpedo things in a hurry, but the Jags have decreased Fournette’s workload late in the season and weren’t afraid to still give him more than 20 touches in a meaningless game last week. Whatever is ailing him, Fournette has played through all season and I see no reason to jump ship against the WORST run defense in the NFL and on this slate. I see a romp and stomp by the Jags.

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January 4 by

NBA Value Index – Jan. 3

Happy New Year! This is the first NBA Value Index of 2018! Monday and Tuesday’s slates didn’t offer enough games for me to do a writeup, so we will kick off an a large 12-game slate in the Association. I don’t really make New Year’s Resolutions, but I do try and better myself each year […]

January 3 by

NFL Value Index – Week 17

Well, it’s here. The last week of the NFL regular season. Thanksgiving. Christmas and 2017 will all be complete by the end of this weekend. While season-long fantasy is probably over for most of us, we do get Week 17 to satisfy our need for fantasy. But there is a problem with Week 17…it’s basically […]

December 29 by

NBA Value Index – Dec. 27

A Nikola Jokic ejection and completely forgetting to put Willie Cauley-Stein back into my cash lineup when I was tinkering before lock really had me tilting my lineups Tuesday night. Donovan Mitchell would’ve panned out in our picks last night had the Jazz shown up in Denver.

But we get back to the grind, stay the course and like Embiid, trust the process.

Tonight we have 10 games to sift through and most of our superstars look like they could be in blowout spots.

Russell Westbrook and the Thunder are at home against Toronto on a back-to-back.

Kevin Durant and the Warriors are at home against Utah on a back-to-back.

Boogie and Brow are at home against Brooklyn on a back-to-back.

LeBron is on the road at Sacramento, also on a back-to-back.

I try not to predict blowouts, but they do give me pause when rostering players from those games. Even at 3 quarters, many of these guys could still smash because all four of the guys I mentioned really are in great spots and could crush regardless of the blowout.

Tonight we have the studs we want to jam in, which is much different than last night where building a more balanced lineup was the way to go, especially since Giannis busted.

I think value is pretty thin tonight, but it is the NBA and I am sure there will be lots of news and notes that will come out before lock (and some that won’t).

So with that said, let me preface with my statement that I am certainly not going to be on some of these guys should some value open up. And also a reminder, that I go in to my selections with cash games in mind (mostly). I will play some in cash and some in tournaments or both, but I usually always like guys because I feel comfortable enough with them in cash games.

Jordan Clarkson – PG/SG – Los Angeles Lakers – $5,600

Analysis: I imagine that Jordan Clarkson is going to be one of the highest owned players on the slate. Lonzo Ball iso out and Clarkson took over all of those PG minutes. He did take 24 shots in that outing, but we might have to temper that kind of usage with Brandon Ingram returning to the lineup. That doesn’t worry me anyway because Clarkson can still put up 13-15 shots and be more of a facilitator, racking up assists.

Andrew Harrison – PG/SG – Memphis Grizzlies – $4,100

Analysis:  This play is definitely going to be one of the chalkiest, in my mind (should other value not open up), despite the back-to-back. Harrison gets to face the Lakers, who are one of the top-paced teams in the league. Tyreke and Gasol eat up the usage here, but Harrison should see the majority of the point guard minutes as he has been, and because Mario Chalmers sucks. The Grizzlies are thin all the way around, so they should have a tight rotation and Harrison should see all of the minutes he can handle once again.

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December 27 by

NBA Value Index – Dec. 26

I hope you all had a Merry Christmas, got everything you could ever ask for and are ready to bring in the New Year! This was the first Christmas that my daughter was aware and mindful of what Christmas can mean and entails. She loved it. I loved her for loving it and I can’t […]

December 26 by

NFL Value Index – Week 16

It’s almost Christmas, season-long fantasy football are in championship mode and the NFL regular season is almost over. While I love Christmas and playoff football, it’s always a bit disappointing to realize how fast the NFL season goes by. With the end of the regular season, comes different ways we should be looking at roster […]

December 22 by

NBA Value Index – Dec. 18

Christmas is one week away!

Hard to believe the end of 2017 is almost here.

For basketball fans, Christmas Day is one of the best days of the year. There’s always a quadruple header and like NFL for Thanksgiving, the players get up for the national spotlight.

But I am jumping ahead.

We must focus on today’s 10-game slate and upon first glance, there’s a lot of red “O’s” at the center position leading up to tonight’s games. Some statuses haven’t changed from the weekend, so keep that in mind today as you build your rosters.

For all of today’s injury news, you can use this link here and keep track leading up to lock.

There’s a lot of value on today’s slate already, and there could be even more as we get news about injuries. So let’s get after it! Again, my selections today are not factoring in potential injury news, so when that becomes available, there’s a chance I pivot off of these guys on to someone else I might like more.

Lonzo Ball – PG – Los Angeles Lakers – $7,000

Analysis: I might be one of the few people that loves playing this guy. I am no whisperer for Lonzo Ball, I just like what he brings to the table, and I am not talking about his shooting. You are getting a triple-double upside guy at only $7K tonight. His team is in the fastest-paced projected game of the night, at home against a team that is down two of its best players. The Lakers are a much improved squad, so I am not worried about a blowout tonight. Yes, Ball struggles with his ugly shot, but he only needs 10 points to get 1/3 of that triple-double. He put up 40 DK points in these two teams first meeting and that was without Steph and Draymond. Cash game and tournaments, I am locking in Lonzo, who should be at least $8K in my opinion.

Milos Teodosic – PG/SG – Los Angeles Clippers – $4,900

Analysis:  Only time will tell about the message in the above .gif. Milos is still working his way back from an injury and got the day off over the weekend, so therefore, I think he gets another solid 26-30 minutes tonight against San Antonio, even though the Spurs are favored by the largest margin over any team on the entire slate. Even if Austin Rivers returns, which I am anticipating that he is not, I like Milos to get his minutes at PG, a position the Spurs struggle to defend. Milos is another guy who isn’t going to score a ton, but he is going to do just about everything else to help secure that floor.

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December 18 by

NFL Value Index – Week 15

DailyOverlay crushed Week 14, weighted heavily by our very own bossman and his 5th place finish in FantasyDraft’s Carolina Million Live Final. So congrats to Greg, our glorious leader, on his haul. This writer would’ve been lining his wallet with hundies if Tom Brady could’ve had just a smidge of dominance against the Dolphins instead […]

December 15 by

NBA Value Index – Dec. 12

Sorry this one is getting out a little late for today’s NBA slate. I’ve had a sick wife (stomach bug) and 2-year-old daughter (flu) all on the injured reserve with questionable tags for their ability to function. This all started Saturday night, so this MF-er is tired. Even though I played very low volume last […]

December 12 by

NBA Value Index – Dec. 11

We only have 6 games on today’s slate, so we are going to keep this edition of the Index short, sweet and FREE! There are quite a few studs on this slate and the eye test doesn’t really seem to offer much in the way of cheap value. But games don’t lock until 7 pm […]

December 11 by

NFL Value Index – Week 14

Four weeks left and we are done with the NFL regular season. There are just 7 weeks left of NFL DFS (and I don’t count the Pro Bowl/Super Bowl slate).

This is about the time we start to see teams, especially those out of playoff contention or those that have locked up all the playoff storylines they can possible lock up, start to use back up players to either evaluate talent, save usage or rest players for the playoffs.

Week 14 may not quite be that time, but we will certainly see things start to lean that way for the three remaining weeks.

Before we get into Week 14’s selections, let me just say that last week’s recommendations were absolutely horrendous. I think the process led me in the right direction, but for some many high-usage guys in prime spots to bust was not only frustrating, but also maybe a bit fluky.

As for Brett Hundley, his lack of production wasn’t fluky, he absolutely sucks. So he’s dead to me in fantasy.

There’s not a lot of pay up for on this slate outside of a few guys in some prime spots. There’s going to be a couple of uber chalky cash game locks and receiver is absolutely loaded.

Running back is a pretty ugly position this week, quarterback doesn’t look much better, but tight end offers some solid options.

So let’s get to the rankings this week…

Quarterback

  1. Jared Goff
  2. Carson Wentz
  3. Alex Smith
  4. Jimmy Garoppolo
  5. Dak Prescott
  6. Matt Stafford (if healthy and slinging it, I’d bump him up)

Running Backs

  1. LeSean McCoy
  2. Todd Gurley
  3. Gio Bernard
  4. Lamar Miller
  5. Melvin Gordon

Wide Receiver

  1. Everyone from $4K and up, seriously, this position is that good this week.

Tight End

  1. Travis Kelce
  2. Jimmy Graham
  3. Hunter Henry
  4. Austin Seferian-Jenkins
  5. Evan Engram

Defense/Special Teams

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars
  2. Los Angeles Chargers
  3. Seattle Seahawks
  4. Los Angeles Rams
  5. Minnesota Vikings

Jimmy Garoppolo – QB – San Francisco 49ers – $5,500

Analysis: Welcome to my cash game lineups, Jimmy G. Throwing for almost 300 yards in his first start and throwing the ball 37 times at that, just shows that Jimmy G has turned the keys of the ignition for the 49ers. Now he gets a cupcake test indoors at Houston, who are 2nd in the league in fantasy points allowed to QBs, 23 TDs overall, including 13 in their last 6. Jimmy G is on a team with a creative OC that runs a ton of plays and is a road dog, meaning more opportunities for G to air it out and continue to put this team on his back.

Gio Bernard – RB – Cincinnati Bengals – $3,100

Analysis: Welcome to the guy who will decide the fate of this week’s slate. Assuming Joe Mixon is ruled out, and he is on track to be out against Chicago, Bernard becomes the de facto workhorse back for the Bengals. He didn’t get the price increase due to the Bengals playing on Monday night. The Bears only allow 3.9 yards per carry, but this is a workhorse back, who can catch passes, as as a home favorite with lots of volume headed his way. It’s hard to ignore a potential free square in cash games. You can always make the case to fade in tournaments, but Bernard’s placement on your team frees up a lot of salary and you can pile up the top receivers and TEs.

Mike Davis – RB – Seattle Seahawks – $3,700

Analysis: I already liked this play before I started getting traction on Gio. Davis is in a prime spot as a Bernard pivot in tournaments. Seattle seems to be committing to Davis as the full-time back, giving him 16 carries and 4 catches last week against Philly. He turned that into 14 DK fantasy points. Davis was a stud at South Carolina, but has always battled the injury bug. Facing Jacksonville is no gimme since they acquired Marcell Dareus from Buffalo, but this is kind of a funnel spot for the Seahawks. Where the receivers should struggle, Jimmy Graham and Davis should benefit with easier, high-percentage targets. The Jags have allowed 65 catches and 5 TDs to pass-catching backs this season. But this is another volume back at a cheap price that will get looks in the passing game. IF he gets the workload and scores, he smashes value.

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December 8 by

NBA Value Index – Dec. 6

Sorry about my absence from the Index Monday, I literally fell asleep with my laptop on my belly around 9 p.m. Sunday night.

I had family in town last weekend and I guess my mind was zapped.

But now I am refreshed and ready to get back to the grind.

Tonight’s NBA slate is 10 games and we already have some injury news that impacts the slate:

Stephen Curry and Tim Hardaway, Jr., Nikola Jokic and Willie Cauley-Stein are out, Anthony Davis is doubtful, Gallinari is questionable, Porzingis is probable. There are a few more names to monitor throughout the day and there’s always the chance that news breaks closer to lock that we weren’t expecting.

Let’s get to my favorite plays outside of Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins, who clearly benefit with usage bumps due to Curry and Davis (doubtful) no in the lineup.

Rajon Rondo – PG – New Orleans Pelicans – $5,500

Analysis: Point guard is pretty weak tonight with Curry out, but there are some very solid, high-usage options. The first is Rondo, who is playing close to 30 minutes a game. With Anthony Davis out, that frees up Rondo to snag extra rebounds and his triple-double upside (which also secures his floor) is massive at a $5,500 price tag. He’s never been a high-scoring threat, but he gets a lot of assists, snags rebounds, can block a shot or two, and collect steals. He has a lot of ways to score, plus this will be a high-paced game as the Pelicans are 7th in pace and the Nuggets are 13th. Denver has been chewed up and spit out lately against PGs, allowing 78.3 DK points in their past 10 games, which is 12 more per game than their season average.

Jonathon Simmons – SG/SF – Orlando Magic – $5,200

Analysis: I really like what Simmons has brought to the table this season. He was a cheap, high-usage guy off the bench to start, but now he’s a starter who is playing anywhere between 33 and 39 minutes per game and is 4th on the team in usage rate of 21.9%. The Magic are hosting the Hawks, who are 3rd overall in fantasy points allowed to SFs this season. Simmons is chucking double-digit shot attempts in each of the games he has started. He can snag rebounds to raise his floor.

Jamal Murray – PG/SG – Denver Nuggets – $5,100

Analysis: The biggest beneficiary to the absence of Paul Millsap and Nikola Jokic is Jamal Murray, who has a wonderful spot tonight. I’ve already mentioned the pace of this game should be up due to the high pace of both teams, meaning extra possessions, which means extra shot attempts and extra opportunities for rebounds, assists, etc. Murray owns a 30% usage rate with Jokic and Millsap gone, and he’s chucked 30 shot attempts over the past two games while playing about 30 minutes in each game that Jokic has been out. Rondo is one of the worst defensive players t in the league the Pelicans are sixth in overall fantasy points allowed to PGs as well.

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December 6 by