Thanks to today’s day game in Chicago, we don’t have to factor in the wind at Wrigley in our lineups tonight. And we only have 14 games to worry about. Only 14. It appears there may be a few games with some weather concerns, but as of this writing (Thursday night), it doesn’t look like […]
Today we have 9 games in the majors, split into two slates, a 4-game early slate and a 5-game evening slate. Neither slate is very big, but we are still providing you with an Expert Consensus today for both slates, so be on the lookout for those as you continue your research and begin building […]
It’s a hump day edition of the Value Index!
While we do have two slates for today’s games, the early version has just 4 games so we will skip right to evening action for today’s Index.
But for the record, play Clayton Kershaw in the early slate (hint, hint).
We have 11 games on the agenda tonight with a couple of spots where weather could be factor. We haven’t had to worry too much with rain lately, so just wanted to inform you about that and remind you to check forecasts as they are published throughout the day.
Pitching tonight is pretty bad folks, but there are some spots for us to consider. I just don’t know if you can feel very safe about most of the options.
Shall we?
Joey Votto – 1B- Cincinnati Reds – $4,700
Analysis: If you have been a reader for some time, you likely know I am not a Joey Votto player. I rarely play him in DFS, but today’s matchup is just too good to pass up. I did play Votto in yesterday’s debut of MLB Arcade Mod on DraftKings, so I will actually play him in my lineups tonight. The Reds are in Wrigley, where the wind should be blowing out to dead center at 20 MPH at times. Kyle Hendricks is on the mound for the Cubbies, and while I don’t like to pick on Hendricks, Votto’s BvP is too awesome. Votto hits RH pitching well, but he has something on Hendricks. In 11 ABs, Votto has 7 hits, 2 HRs and 6 walks. Those kinds of numbers are cash game locks for me.
Jason Vargas – SP – Kansas City Royals – $8,400
Analysis: Boy this Index is quickly featuring players I don’t like. I mean, Matt Garza almost made this list too for crying out loud. I told you the pitching sucks today. MIchael Pineda is the clear top option on the slate, but we need some value and somehow, Jason Vargas grades out well on my end. Vargas has seemingly turned his career around, posting a 12.5 SwStr% with a 7.86 K/9 rate. I know the wind is blowing out and it’s the Yankees, but the Yankees haven’t been near as good against southpaws this season. The Bronx Bombers are only initiating 27% hard contact against lefties, while Vargas is allowing just 26% hard contact himself. The Yanks are also striking out at a 22.8% clip against southpaws, too. No one is going to play Vargas, but he is kind of “safe” to me tonight, and I hate mentioning such a thing.
So we have a new way to play baseball DFS debuting today.
If you haven’t heard, DraftKings is offering “Arcade Mode” starting with tonight’s slate.
The short explanation for this style of play is like playing home-run derby, but if you look at the scoring more closely, stolen bases are a HUGE part of the game. Anyone who can hit a homerun and steal bases will have a monster day. Pitching is valuable, too, but are penalized some for hits, walks, HBPs and ERs. That’s the gist, but here’s what the scoring looks like if you haven’t seen it yet.
Pricing is very inflated and you still maintain a cap of $50K. Playing around with it, I inserted Yu and Bryce Harper in a lineup, but my leftover salary wasn’t much. Without active lineups, I wasn’t ready to finish the lineup.
You also can’t stack in this format, with a maximum of two players from the same team allowed.
You definitely want to play guys who are hitting 1, 2, 3 due to the extra points for plate appearances. But I can see a scenario where playing lower lineup guys would be a contrarian play (as they usually are anyway).
I’ll be experimenting with this format daily to see what I like and don’t like about it and see what strategies work best. On the surface, the draw is to advertise huge scoring and fun play, but DraftKings still over penalizes pitchers. This format needs to be different from regular style completely and they need to drop pitchers being penalized outside of earned runs, just like FanDuel.
Anyway, we might include some Arcade Mode plays on the Index in the future. We will see.
With that said, tonight is a 13-game slate of action with some solid top-tier pitching to choose from.
There’s a theme to tonight’s madness, all of my recommendations are players against lefty pitchers (and no, one of them is not Giancarlo Stanton, though I will play him against Keuchel, I just don’t love him).
Now, let’s get to it!
James McCann – C – Detroit Tigers – $2,900
Analysis: Targeting bats against Wade Miley has burned me all year long. In fact, it’s a pretty common theme for me in DFS. I don’t roster him and he goes all murderball on the mound, and I stack against him and he twirls gems. But I am not missing out on his regression. It’s going to happen and I am going to stack against him until I profit off of it. The Tigers look like a great bet to do that tonight. Lots of RH bats, including my first selection, James McCann, a lefty masher at the catcher position. This season, the Tigers have hit 11 HRs against lefties…McCann has 4 of them. He’s got an unsustainable .453 wOBA and .545 ISO against southpaws this season. His hard contact rate against them is 47%. I don’t think a lot of people will roster McCann and he comes at a great discount.
Buster Posey – C/1B – San Francisco Giants – $4,200
Analysis: Well, if you are a routine Value Index follower, are you surprised he’s here? He blasted his 5th home run in 6 games (one late last night off of….a lefty). Can he continue to provide a hot bat? He’s got a tougher lefty on the hill in Rich Hill, who is coming off the DL for his first start. But Hill had been struggling prior to his stint, giving up a .422 wOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to RH bats this season. I have never truly been sold on the Rich Hill resurgence myself, and that thinking will continue for me as I click Posey in multiple lineups tonight at catcher AND 1B.
J.C. Ramirez – SP – Los Angeles Angels – $6,800
Analysis: You get three freebies on the Index today (though I think I goofed yesterday and forgot to make the Index a premium article, so congrats to you if you benefited!). We have some stud pitching on today’s slate, but the arms aren’t guys I love. There’s lots of premium bats on the slate today and I have a feeling that bats are going to speak volumes. For that reason, we need some value arms. I think a lot of people will go to Jimmy Nelson (including myself, though I think it’s another San Diego trap – see Anderson last night and Miguel Gonzalez last Friday), but I still expect Ramirez to command double-digit ownership. Why? Because he faces the White Sox, who are dead last in team wOBA against RH pitching. Jesse Chavez had a very respectable outing against them last night and Ramirez has much better strikeout upside. He’s got a solid curve (see above) as an out pitch and owns a 9.7% SwStr rate and an 8.19 K/9 rate this season. The White Sox command a 23.3% strikeout rate against RH pitching this season.
Hope everyone had a great weekend, but it is back to the weekly MLB grind here at Daily Overlay. I must say this is a really great time of the year. School is winding down for me (two weeks left!), so that means summertime is upon us and so is a couple of months off […]
The Nationals can suck it. Calling that game last night after lock, after 30 minutes since its scheduled start, immediately announcing A.J. Cole’s start would be skipped, and with no threat of rain the rest of the night and AFTER the bulk of the rain had moved through, was such a tilting move. I really […]
Well, the vote didn’t come to the floor of the Texas Legislature Wednesday. Not even a sniff about legalizing DFS in Texas. So Thursday’s the last stand, and there’s only a hail mary’s chance it gets recognized for a potential vote. I don’t know what happens if nothing comes out of Thursday’s session. I can’t […]
Today we have a split slate of games in the majors. For your afternoon enjoyment, you get to decide whether or not you want to play Coors and which dart throw of a pitcher you want to add to your lineups. While in the evening, we get a ton of high-end pitchers in great spots […]
So I must apologize to anyone who is currently utilizing the Value index and Daily Overlay to help them better their lineups.
I am apologizing for me because my pitching recommendations this season have been dreadful. Coming off of being the No. 1 expert we graded in pitching in 2016, my 2017 season has looked like something Jered Weaver, Rookie Davis, Steven Wright, Blake Snell, Nick Martinez or Dylan Covey have put together so far this year. It’s been bad. Real bad.
The only thing about my pitching process is that I am NOT relying heavily on BvP stats to make my picks. BvP was very kind last year in that I could trust the pitchers I listed as suggestions and rolling them out there in my very own DFS lineups.
But I think that is something I am going to have to really, really consider going back to for the remainder of the season. It was reliable, safe, friendly and profitable most days.
As for the bats, well, that’s baseball. Those are going to go on and off all year. There’s less predictability in a player’s bat than there is for pitcher, who controls what pitches to throw, where to throw them, the speed and movement, the location, the count, etc.
So we will see if I can put this derailed train back on the tracks and get it moving when it comes to pitching. But I apologize to anyone I have cost money. I know that’s not fun, and while you still make the choice to play a player, you might weigh them heavily because of an opinion I have written.
But this all may be for not today.
I say that because today marks a day of importance for DFS players in Texas.
From what I have been following and reading, today is the day the Texas Legislature must make a decision to put up or shut up until at least 2019. The vote for a bill that would legalize DFS must go to the floor today for a vote. If that doesn’t occur, then we have to wait two years when these branches of government meet again. If it goes to vote, but is shot down, then again, the same scenario. I feel getting the bill to a vote is key. I will feel more comfortable about it getting passed should this event occur. I don’t know the litigation continues for DraftKings or any other DFS site if Texas isn’t legalized this year.
As for me, if it’s not legalized and I can’t play, I don’t see a reason to write for DailyOverlay anymore. It would be a very big kick to the nuts if Texas, like myself, can’t play something we love.
Anyway, if this is the last day, I hope I make this set of picks count for you, and hopefully cash big in our lineups.
I mean, Mike Pelfrey AND Chris Young are pitching tonight…what could go wrong?
There’s only a game in Coors, a game in Chase, the Yankees in Great American Smallpark, Pelfrey and Young on the mound, the Nats facing Ubaldo, a game at Rogers Centre AND a game at Miller Park. LOTS of offensive options to choose from today.
MIguel Sano – 3B – Minnesota Twins – $4,300
Analysis: Oh dear, Mike Pelfrey somehow still has a job in the major leagues. Today the Twins get a crack at roughing up one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Sano has had some great success against Pelfrey early on, going 3-for-4 with a double, a home run and two walks. Sano has been lightning in a bottle over the past couple of weeks. Add in a ballpark upgrade for the Twinkies, and you have a prime 3B selection tonight.
Bryce Harper – OF – Washington Nationals – $5,400
Analysis: Heeee’s baaaacck. Bryce Harper went yard again in his return from an injury, and hopefully we aren’t a day late here. But he and the Nats are facing Ubaldo Jimenez, who has given up a .380 wOBA to lefties since the start of 2016. Harper has a couple of walks against Ubaldo in a handful of ABs, so give it time (tonight to be exact) that Harper gets dinger off of Ubaldo and his 3.00 HR/9 vs. lefties since 2016.
Aaron Judge – OF – New York Yankees – $4,600
Analysis: Judge didn’t play last night, and neither did Castro (see below), so the only thing that’s changed my love for them today is their opposing pitcher, Tim Adleman. He’s an upgrade to Rookie Davis, who got hammered last night, but he’s still a gas can. Judge destroys right-handed pitching as I wrote up yesterday. He’s second on the team in wOBA and ISO versus RHs this season. The only one better is Aaron Hicks, but come on, who would you rather play?
It’s another Monday and another edition of the Value Index.
We are starting to get well into May, and we continue to have some surprising events going on in Major League Baseball.
The Reds and Yankees continue to sport juggernaut offenses, the Rockies, too. All are in first place in their divisions! Not the Cubs. Not the Red Sox. Not the Cardinals. Not the Giants. The Royals have the worst winning percentage in the league and the new Braves’ stadium might be the new Coors Field.
Of course we still have a long way to go, but it will be interesting to see how much of what we see right now remains a month from now, two months from now and well into September.
The Value Index is a premium article today, BUT I have 7 picks, so I am throwing in an extra pick for free. Hope you enjoy what you read and that it brings you great success on tonight’s 10-game slate!
Manny Machado – 3B – Baltimore Orioles – $5,100
Analysis: Perception is one thing, diving into the numbers is another. Bias can control how we feel about a player, and so can statistics. Generally, the stats say Manny Machado doesn’t hit lefties well. Well, he doesn’t hit them poorly, just not as much as we would like to believe…except in 2017. Machado is destroying left-handed pitching so far this season.While the rest of the team can’t hit a ball the size of a globe if thrown by a southpaw, Machado has been dominant, posting a .422 wOBA and a .406 ISO with 4 of the team’s 10 homeruns off of lefties this season. Even more spectacular is Machado’s 62.8% hard contact rate against lefties this season. The sample size is small, but the production is there. Machado typically always hits better at home than on the road and tonight he gets Gio Gonzalez, who is bound to blow up at some point. Machado has started to find his stroke and maybe it’s because Chris Sale threw behind him intentionally. Whatever it was, he’s finally starting to produce with 5 home runs in his last 10 games, including 4 in his last 6. Gonzalez allows a 33% hard contact rate to RH bats since 2016. His ERA is 1.64 but his SIERA is 4.51. All of the regression won’t come tonight, but Machado is in a good spot to help get it started.
Wilmer Flores – 1B/3B – New York Mets – $3,100
Analysis: Matt Moore has been getting pounded away from AT&T Park, and I personally found that out the hard way the last time he pitcher. After the Mets got blanked on Sunday, they will be in a decent spot to rough up a guy who has struggled this season. There aren’t a lot of healthy Mets to choose from in this spot, but there is one that sticks out and that’s Wilmer Flores, who should bat in the heart of the order today. SInce 2016, Flores has a .463 wOBA and a .381 ISO with 13 home runs against southpaws. This season, Moore has allowed a .346 wOBA with a 1.69 HR/9 and a 33% hard contact rate against lefties. Flores has just 2 ABs against Moore and is 0-for-2, so I don’t know if he’s due, but Flores is a cheap play that offers a lot of pop.
Blake Snell – SP – Tampa Bay Rays – $7,400
Analysis: Let me preface this with, I am sorry if this pick goes bad. I can’t count how many times I’ve played guys in this pricing tier this season that have absolutely let me down. Now with that said, Snell is in a dreamy matchup against a lackluster Royals offense that can’t hit anything. Like I said above, the Royals have the worst winning percentage in all of baseball and they are the worst offense against left-handed pitching. Snell hasn’t been perfect himself as walks have really, really been his kryptonite this season. Let’s hope an offense that provides some of the least worrisome power in the league helps him settle in a groove. Snell owns a 7.76 K/9 this season and an 8.91 K/9 vs. RH and an 11.1 K/9 vs. LH bats since the start of 2016. His walk rate is 6.03 BB/9 this season, so let’s hope that’s not sustainable starting tonight. Oh, the Royals, meanwhile, have a .183 batting average, a .232 wOBA, a .080 ISO and a 23% K rate against lefties this season. If they erupt for power and runs today, I don’t know anyone will see that coming.
So I missed Star Wars Day. And today is Cinco de Mayo. Tomorrow is May 6th. And tonight is another day of Major League Baseball, the best DFS sport there is. Now, there are a lot of weather concerns going into tonight’s slate. Pittsburgh (which I hate has rain concerns), Philly, New York and Atlanta […]
Daily Overlay decided we would cover all baseball slates during the week, so here we are with our first split slate of May and of this week. For Value Index purposes, we will do all picks I like today in one write-up. Because i am doing it all in one bundle, i will have 3 […]