Happy Bryce Harper vs. Julio Teheran day!!!
Happy Coors Field Day!
Happy Monday!
Happy…..ok, enough happy talk.
Today we have a large 10-game MLB slate to tackle, including a game at Coors Field. As I have said previously, Coors Field will never be part of The Stack because that game, no matter who is playing, will be the obvious place to go for source of fantasy points most nights. So Coors is barred from The Stack.
Tonight will present a tough challenge as we have lots of stud starting pitchers, who have high prices. But we also have high prices on players in Coors and players like Rhys Hoskins and Mr. Teheran BvP Bryce Harper (up to 8 HRs off of Teheran now).
Today’s Stack will be the final freebie article, indefinitely. You will get part of it for free moving forward, but will need to be a premium subscriber to access full contact. Good luck tonight, and may the Force be with you…
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
1. Matt Carpenter – $3,300
2. Dexter Fowler – $3,100
Total Cost – $6,400
Percentage of Salary Cap – 13%
Combined 2018 Home Runs – 2
Opposing SP HR/9 vs. L (2016-2017) – 1.21
Opposing SP HR/9 vs. R (2016-2017) – 0.64
Justification – Jhoulys Chacin is an MLB journeyman and tonight, based on his pitching history, presents itself to be a pretty solid matchup against the RH heavy Cardinals. Chacin is a guy that induces a lot of groundballs and Ks against RH bats, but it’s lefties where things get dicey. Chacin owns a .333 wOBA against lefty bats the past two years and an ERA of 5.07. Carpenter and Fowler at the two main lefty bats that sit atop this lineup. Kolten Wong certainly would be a fine value play if he makes the starting lineup, too. But for now, let’s focus on Carpenter and Fowler. Carpenter has more walks than Ks and a home run against Chacin in his career while Fowler is 1-for-3 with a double. Carpenter has a .380 wOBA and Fowler a .361 wOBA against RH pitching. Carpenter sports a 44% hard contact rate against RH pitching and a .245 ISO. Fowler owns a .202 ISO and a 33% hard contact rate.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
1. Rhys Hoskins – $5,600
2. Aaron Altherr – $3,400
3. Maikel Franco – $4,000
Total Cost – $13,000
Percentage of Salary Cap – 26%
Combined 2018 Home Runs: 4
Opposing SP HR/9 vs. L (2016-2017) – 1.15
Opposing SP HR/9 vs. R (2016-2017) – 2.36
Justification – The Phillies are off to a hot start in 2018, scoring at least 5 runs in 4 of 7 games this season, including a 20-run effort on Saturday. Maikel Franco had an underwhelming year in 2017, so hopefully his sudden outburst is more of what to expect than his ceiling. Hoskins is the guy in this stack, but he’s already getting quite pricey. There are a lot of solid, pricey outfielders on tonight’s slate,and I will bet Hoskins is not the highest owned despite his matchup with lefty Cody Reed, who might be the worst pitcher on the slate tonight. Against lefties in his career, Hoskins has a .404 wOBA, a .400 ISO and a ridiculously low BABIP of 0.074. His hard contact against lefties is 45%, so his time is coming. Reed’s numbers against RH bats in his career? .392 wOBA and 41% hard contact allowed. This spells disaster for Reed and great things for those who roster Hoskins. The third guy in this stack is Altherr, who has great numbers against lefties in his career (.347 wOBA, .242 ISO and 37% hard contact), but he’s off to an awful start to the season.
CINCINNATI REDS
1. Jesse Winker – $3,000
2. Joey Votto – $4,200
3. Scooter Gennett – $3,200
Total Cost – $10,400
Percentage of Salary Cap – 21%
Combined 2018 Home Runs – 0
Opposing SP HR/9 vs. L (2016-2017) – 1.66
Opposing SP HR/9 vs. R (2016-2017) – 0.99
Justification: I think this game has one of the best chances for both offenses to go off. The Reds haven’t been much of an offense lately, but the three men in this stack are going to be homerless forever. Winker has been leading off in this offense and provides some cheap value at the top of a lineup that is on the road. Votto hasn’t got it going yet, but he’s certainly overdue for his first HR of the season. Votto and Winker have wOBAs over .420 against RH pitching while Gennett is no slouch himself with a wOBA of .347. All three have hard contact of 32% or higher, with Winker topping out near 40% hard contact.
NEW YORK METS
1. Michael Conforto – $4,000
2. Jay Bruce – $3,600
3. Yoenis Cespedes – $4,700
Total Cost – $12,300
Percentage of Salary Cap – 24%
Combined 2018 Home Runs – 5
Opposing SP HR/9 vs. L (2016-2017) – 1.37
Opposing SP HR/9 vs. R (2016-2017) – 1.26
Justification – Jose Urena definitely can make a case for who is the worst pitcher on this slate. The Mets are not a team that strikes out a bunch and Urena isn’t a guy who strikes out a lot of players either. Urena owns a .333 wOBA against lefties and a 33% hard contact allowed. Bruce has popped Urena for two home runs in 13 ABs, Conforto has three hits with a double and Cespedes is 3-for-11 with a homer. Cespedes should go underowned tonight with all of the matchups and Coors. Cespedes is exceptional against RH pitching – .362 wOBA, .242 ISO, 38.6% hard contact.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
1. Kole Calhoun – $3,300
2. Shohei Ohtani – $4,200
Total Cost – $7,500
Percentage of Salary Cap – 15%
Combined 2018 Home Runs – 4
Opposing SP HR/9 vs. L (2016-2017) – 1.68
Opposing SP HR/9 vs. R (2016-2017) – 0.53
Justification – I like when things are pretty definitive. Take Doug Fister for example. He’s an elite groundball pitcher against RH bats, but when a lefty is involved, the bandage becomes unraveled. Calhoun is 3-for-8 with a home run and 4 walks in his career against Fister. Calhoun is a solid, cheap option that will hit near the top or even lead off. Arlington won’t be particularly warm, but the Ballpark is still a hitter’s park either way and Calhoun should get shots at the lowly Texas bullpen. As for Ohtani, his very small sample size against RH pitchers is as follows: .705 wOBA, 384 wRC+, .643 ISO, 50% hard contact. Of course those are all going to level out, but I imagine Ohtani will be quite popular today. He’s got 3 HRs in three straight games and Fister is prone to the long ball against lefties. I wouldn’t be surprised for Ohtain to hit number 4 in a row.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
1. Paul Goldschmidt – $4,800
2. A.J. Pollock – $4,800
3. Nick Ahmed – $3,400
Total Cost – $13,000
Percentage of Salary Cap – 26%
2018 Combined Home Runs – 2
Opposing SP HR/9 vs. L (2016-2017) – 1.05
Opposing SP HR/9 vs. R (2016-2017) – 1.88
Justification – Just kidding, Derek Holland is the worst pitcher on this slate. Welcome to my favorite stack of the night. Goldy is hitting a measly .100 and has zero home runs on the year. Holland, aka Dutch Oven, is a junk toss away from rectifying that goose egg for Mr. Goldschmidt. Goldy smashes lefties and falls into the Stanton vs. lefties lock and load category. Pollock is also solid against lefties, sporting a 108 wRC+ while Ahmed owns a 103 wRC+. All three sport great power numbers against lefties as well. I imagine they will all go low owned in tournaments also.
