I can honestly say that I am not crazy about a lot of stacks for tonight’s slate. We have tons of stud pitchers facing mediocre offenses and some mid-tier pitchers facing below average offenses.
My gut tells me the late games are the ones to target tonight.
With the exception of the Boston Red Sox….14 games tonight, lots of stud pitching, so let’s get after it!
BOSTON RED SOX
1. Mookie Betts
2. Andrew Benintendi
3. J.D. Martinez
4. Mitch Moreland
5. Xander Bogaerts
Analysis: The Boston Red Sox are away from Fenway taking on the KC Royals and starter Jason Hammel. This is the best offense against the best matchup of the slate. It’s not the best hitting weather (that’s in LA), but I’ll take the Red Sox on the road in this plus matchup. The Red Sox are the top team against RH pitching and Hammel is a reverse-splits pitcher, surrendering a .373 wOBA to RH bats this season. He’s also allowed 44% hard contact and if he gets in trouble early, the Red Sox get to hit against one of the weakest bullpens in all of baseball, which is weird to say about the Royals considering their recent past. Hammel also is weak against lefties, giving up a .321 wOBA with 47% hard contact and 1.14 HR/9. Moreland is battling an injury, so make sure he is in the lineup. You could go Devers instead of Moreland if Mitch is out. Or do it anyway. I like the RH bats here of course, Bogey and J.D. have a combined 8 hits and 2 HRs against Hammel in their careers, which spans 18 total ABs.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
1. Paul Goldschmidt
2. A.J. Pollock
3. Nick Ahmed
4. Ketel Marte
5. John Ryan Murphy
Analysis: The D-Backs were a bust last night except for Pollock, who at least didn’t manage to goose egg. I’ll go back to the well in what should be drastically lower ownership because it’s a 14-game slate and because of them busting. Today the D-Backs get Joey Lucchesi, who owns a .322 wOBA, 41% hard hit rate, 1.97 HR/9 rate and only a .248 BABIP against righties. We know Goldy is a stud against lefties, but so are the remaining four in this 5-man stack. In fact, Arizona is 3rd overall in team wOBA against lefties this season. And Steven Souza Jr. has returned to this lineup, so he could be a 6th man addition to this stack. As for Pollock, Ahmed, Marte and Murphy, Pollock leads the team in wOBA at .438 with a .429 ISO. Marte owns a .384 wOBA, Murphy is at a .379 wOBA and Ahmed sits at .365. All have an ISO of at least .228 or higher.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
1. Max Muncy
2. Cody Bellinger
3. Joc Pederson
4. Yasmani Grandal
Analysis: It’s going to be insanely hot in L.A. today. Temperatures will reach way above 100 at some point today, so a hot Dodgers team on the road in the heat against an inexperienced pitcher screams stack me!!!! The Dodgers take on Felix Pena, who in limited action is surrendering a .411 wOBA, 48% hard contact, 1.50 HR/9 rate and 2.17 WHIP against lefties all the while owning a 5.51 xFIP. Against RH bats, Pena is due for some extreme positive regression against RH bats, so that’s why these are all lefites. Pena strikes out RH batters very well and has been very unlucky against them so far. Muncy and Joc are both over .400 in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season while Grandal and Bellinger are well above .340 wOBA each. All four guys have ISOs of .250 or better and very high hard hit rates.
