It’s Friday the 13th and the final edition of DailyOverlay’s The Stack prior to the MLB All-Star Break.
We have a full 15 games tonight. Coors is on this slate, we have a couple of stud pitchers to pay up for such as Madison Bumgarner, Rick Porcello and rookie Walker Buehler. The rest of the pitching options are questionable at best.
As for our stacks, we’ve got a lot more to choose from, and honestly, I could probably add a few more because of the starting pitching taking the hill.
With that said, we will see you after the All-Star Break. I won’t be watching any of it with the exception of a round or two of the home run derby. Good luck tonight, enjoy the break (and some British Open golf!).
TEXAS RANGERS
1. Shin-Soo Choo
2. Joey Gallo
3. Nomar Mazara
4. Rougned Odor
Analysis: The Rangers travel to Baltimore to take on the Orioles, who are shipping in their season and likely shipping off Manny Machado (and likely Zach Britton) at any minute. Machado doesn’t really matter here because I like the Rangers getting potential extra ABs and facing starter Alex Cobb, who has looked more like corn on a cob rather than a major league pitcher. Against lefties this season, Cobb has allowed a .386 wOBA, 1.5 HR/9 and a 35% hard contact rate. Choo is one of the best plays from this stack, if you are looking for a one off. He owns a .411 wOBA, .254 ISO and a 49% hard contact rate against RH pitching. He’s also 5-for-12 with 2 doubles, a home run and a steal against him. As for the other three amigos, Gallo, Mazara and Odor all have ISOs of at least .169 or better against righties.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
1. Jose Ramirez
2. Francisco Lindor
3. Michael Brantley
4. Yonder Alonso
Analysis: The Indians continue to roll, beating up Luis Severino on Thursday. Now they get the rookie Domingo German, who has been pitching over his head against lefties early on in his career. Cleveland is on another level right now and they get to see if they can hack into German’s 4.41 xFIP and .247 BABIP. Against lefties this season, German also owns a .334 wOBA, 36% hard contact and a HR/9 rate of 2.02. The Indians continue to go underowned despite their continued success. All 4 guys above have hard hit rates against righties of 39% or better, all have wOBAs .342 or better against righties and ISOs .186 or above.
BOSTON RED SOX
1. Mookie Betts
2. J.D. Martinez
Analysis: Yea….Steve Pearce getting bonked yesterday really ruined my night. He will make my stacks tonight if he is back in the lineup after taking a fastball off the ankle from J.A. Happ. But for now, we will pretend he isn’t and take two wunderkinds to pair as a mini stack. Both excel against lefties, as you are likely well aware of. The face rookie Ryan Borucki, who has yet to allow a home run to a right-handed bat in his limited action. He’s due and owns a 3.85 xFIP against righties compared to his 2.87 ERA against them. Can Betts capitalize off his 13-pitch Grand Slam? He should here with his .481 wOBA and .386 ISO against lefties. Martinez is right up there against lefties, too, owning a .392 wOBA and .220 ISO.
GAME STACK – CHICAGO CUBS @ SAN DIEGO PADRES
Cubs
1. Kris Bryant
2. Willson Contreras
3. Javier Baez
Padres
1. Wil Myers
2. Eric Hosmer
Analysis: Kris Bryant is one of the sneakiest 3B bats on this slate. Coors and Indians will draw a lot of ownership. Bryant may be playing in a pitcher’s park, but he’s arguably the best 3B option on this slate against lefty Clayton Richard. Against lefties, Bryant owns a .493 wOBA, .431 ISO and 51% hard contact rate. Contreras is second in the team in wOBA against lefties at .385 and Baez is second in ISO against lefties at .268. Richard limits the damage against RH pitching sometimes, but he still owns a .326 wOBA and 43% hard contact. He has a 4.13 xFIP as well. As for the Padres, we can leverage what will likely be chalk city in the cheap range of pitchers as they draw Tyler Chatwood. Hosmer is one of my favorite value plays on the board as he draws Chatwood’s .386 wOBA, 34% hard contact and 5.64 xFIP against lefties this season. Myers is a reverse splits hitter facing a RH pitcher who has some extreme regression coming against righties. He owns a .207 BABIP and 4.83 xFIP against them and Myers has BvP in this matchup with 3 doubles, 3 home runs and 2 walks in 8 of 22 ABs.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
1. Mike Moustakas
2. Lucas Duda
Analysis: Oh, James Shields is pitching? Count me in. The Royals will go completely overlooked and that’s very likely a decent strategy. But here we have two guys who have had Shields’ number in their careers. The Moose is 6-for-13 with a double, a home run and 2 walks. Duda is 4-for-12 with 2 bombs and a double against Shields, who owns a ridiculous 5.09 xFIP and .207 BABIP against lefties. He’s allowed 1.02 HR/9 rate against lefties, too. I’ll take the guys with strong numbers against righties, who have BvP against a guy who has regression coming against lefties.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
1. Brandon Belt
2. Pablo Sandoval
3. Andrew McCutchen
Analysis: Edwin Jackson is pitching? Great! Count me in here too. No one likes playing the Giants. For some reason, I love to, even at home. Jackson has shown solid early numbers to right-handed pitching this season and really lucky to lefties. He’s got a .212 BABIP and 4.88 xFIP, which is more than 3 runs higher than his ERA. Despite the successful numbers against righties, Andrew McCutchen has owned him in his career, scorching him for 3 homers, 9 RBIs, 3 doubles, 7 walks and a steal. Belt has 5 walks but no hits in 9 ABs against Jackson, so he’s very much due to get his first hit or two against him. Crawford. Kung Fu Panda will likely never make my list again, but he’s got the BvP as a value play today, going 9-for-19 with two doubles, one homer, 6 RBIs and a walk against. Even if this doesn’t work out, I will always stack against E-Jax, every time.
