Entries by Brad Richter

NFL – Weighted Expert Consensus – Week 17

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus rankings for Week 17. In this series, we will publish a more in-depth version of the NFL Consensus rankings every week that takes into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position.

To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great compact article.

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 17:

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NFL Offensive Tendencies – Week 17

Week 17! Hard to believe it is already the last week of the NFL regular season. While Week 17 in season long fantasy leagues is an absolute “no-no” in my book, it is one of my favorite weeks of the NFL season for DFS. It is the most unpredictable week of the season, including Week 1, due to all of the different circumstances that you need to evaluate depending on what teams have to play for. I feel it is the week that actually requires the most skill to navigate the entire season.

So with that, I am going with a different format to the Offensive Tendencies article this week that is similar to the “Hot Sheet” style that I used during Thanksgiving week. Only this time, I will spend a little bit of time analyzing each game. Here is a snippet from the Thanksgiving article to better explain where the numbers come from for each position.

The charts below show the rating for each position per team based on each team’s own offensive performance and their opponent’s defensive performance for a variety of factors over the season and last five weeks:

  • Vegas line and total
  • Team pace (plays)
  • Overall play distribution
  • Red Zone and Inside 10 play distribution
  • Yards per attempt (passing, receiving, rushing)
  • TD per attempt (passing, receiving, rushing)
  • DVOA ratings from FootballOutsiders
  • Sacks, turnovers and defensive touchdowns

All of these stats and rankings are compiled, weighted and averaged to come up with a single “rating” for each team by position for this week. Numbers in red are “hot” indicating a good matchup and potential “increased opportunity” for this week.

As always, I will give my Top Plays for the week at the bottom of the article. So let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
Houston Texans 44 38 34 70 40 46 43 50 40.5
Tennessee Titans 40 53 53 22 48 35 50 35 -3

The Texans have clinched the AFC South division and locked into the fourth seed. That said, look for the Texans to play most of their starters throughout the game as long as they are healthy and the game is close. The running game will likely be led by Alfred Blue, with Lamar Miller nursing an injury, but will struggle against a solid Titans rush defense. The passing game will have some success in particular with yardage. The best receiving options in the passing game will be Jonathan Grimes out of the backfield and Will Fuller.

The Titans have been eliminated from the playoffs. The passing game will have Matt Cassel at QB, following the injury to Marcus Mariota last week. With Cassel under center against a solid Texans’ defense, the Titans passing game will struggle to move the ball through the air with the best receiving option coming from DeMarco Murray on check down passes. The running game will have some success but look for a split workload between Murray and Derrick Henry in a game that doesn’t carry any meaning for the Titans.

Increased Opportunities:

  • Will Fuller (+)
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NBA – Weighted Consensus – December 30

Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the NBA where we publish a more in-depth version of the NBA Consensus rankings every day that takes into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.

To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.

Be sure to sign up for our Premium Content to find out which high-priced Stud and Value options sits atop the expert’s list for Friday.

Here is the NBA Weighted Consensus list for December 30:

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NBA – Industry Expert Consensus – December 30th

Friday night features a nine-game main slate of NBA action. The slate features some big point spread with six teams favored by at least seven points with all of the game coming in with a Vegas total over 200 points. Playing time could be a concern for some studs making some of the mid-tier options projected to be in close games intriguing options.

The numbers in the parenthesis are the number of experts that picked that player to give you more context as to the gaps between players and the tiers. Also listed projected ownership percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help determine which players will be the chalk and which players could be a good low owned contrarian play.

Here are the Industry Consensus picks for tonight…

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NFL Value Index – Week 17

It’s the final week of the regular season, and while that is heartbreaking for many of us, it does segue into an awesome time for the NFL and that is the playoffs.

The first two weeks of the playoffs are my favorite points in the season. You get two games on Saturday and two games on Sunday for the next two weeks. After that, the road to the Super Bowl can feel a little slow.

But back to Week 17, where players will rest for the postseason, teams will take the day off though suit up and play a game, and some teams actually have something to play for.

We had a ton of injuries in Week 16, which is likely going to force you to have to wait for roster construction until Sunday morning (I know I will be waiting). Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota broke bones in their legs, RG3 suffered a concussion, Bryce Petty landed on IR at quarterback. T.J. Yeldon, Thomas Rawls, Spencer Ware, Ryan Mathews, Kenneth Farrow, Chris Ivory, Rob Kelley, Carlos Hyde, Matt Forte, Lamar Miller, Theo Riddick, Jay Ajayi and Melvin Gordon are all either on IR, headed to IR or questionable for Sunday. It’s a mess at the running back position. Wide receivers and tight ends have some injury news to monitor, but not a lot.

What we also have to worry about are the teams that are either going to sit their starters all game or play them, but limit their snaps and/or series. We always think about this in fantasy regarding the players we are rostering on our teams, but we also have to think about these kinds of moves for starters on the defensive side, which would boost opposing offenses.

Here’s the teams that have something to play for this week: Washington, New England, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Green Bay, Kansas City, Oakland and Seattle. The Steelers, Giants, Cowboys, Texans and Dolphins do not.

I find it hard to believe the playoff teams that have nothing to play for this week will play their starters a whole game with nothing on the line. This is a week where teams also might experiment with younger players to evaluate their rosters for the offseason. It can be challenging to find the right plays, but if we get news early of what to expect as far as starts and sits, then it will make it easier to narrow down our selections. There are a lot of great plays out there, but we may not know the news we need until later this weekend, for example, Pittsburgh. I want to rush and play DeAngelo Williams everywhere, but could see a situation where Fitzgerald Toussaint splits carries or even starts in hopes of preserving a quality backup should Le’Veon get hurt in the postseason.

I honestly don’t feel comfortable making a lot of picks this week, but I tried to narrow down some of my favorites that are playing in meaningful games or situations.

Matthew Stafford – QB – Lions – vs. Green Bay Packers – $6,000 

Analysis: Outside of Aaron Rodgers, I am not playing another quarterback this week outside of Matthew Stafford. This is the most meaningful game of the entire slate as the winner wins the NFC North and the loser could potentially be out of the playoffs (and they will know this info before the game kicks off since Washington will have played earlier in the day). Stafford hasn’t thrown a TD pass in two games, and he is facing a team at home (where he has a 11-3 TD:INT ratio) that has allowed 30 touchdown passes to quarterbacks this season. I know Atlanta and New Orleans has a ridiculously high 56-point O/U projection, but I will have exposure to that game in other ways. This is a very, very similar situation for me when Drew Brees went to Arizona a few weeks ago coming off two 0 TD, 3 INT performances. Positive regression is going to side with Stafford and the Lions are indoors, at home with the division and the playoffs on the line. Sam Bradford just carved up this Packers’ secondary….Sam Bradford.

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NFL – Expert Recap & Grades – Week 16

Only one week left and the Overall Standings are tight with the potential for some movement up and down the standings. FantasyTeamAdvice had a down week in Week 16 which could cost them the top spot if they have another one. Meanwhile, DailyFantasyNerd, DailyFantasySportsRankings and DailyFantasyCafe are also in striking range. It should be a […]

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NFL – Weighted Expert Consensus – Week 16

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus rankings for Week 15. In this series, we will publish a more in-depth version of the NFL Consensus rankings every week that takes into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position.

To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great compact article.

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 16:

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NBA – Weighted Consensus – December 23

Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the NBA where we publish a more in-depth version of the NBA Consensus rankings every day that takes into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.

To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.

Be sure to sign up for our Premium Content to find out which high-priced Stud and Value plays sit atop the experts list for Friday.

Here is the NBA Weighted Consensus list for December 23:

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NFL Offensive Tendencies – Week 16

For a week where there are 11 divisional games and only three games with a favorite of a touchdown or more, there were still quite a few increased opportunities that presented themselves this week. Week 16 is spread out over four different days during the Christmas season including the main slate taking place on Christmas Eve (Saturday). I also stumbled across a game that has sneaky shootout potential in about the last place you would think to look.

If you are looking for a last minute Christmas gift idea then get that special someone a subscription to the Premium Content at DailyOverlay to get this full article along with many other great articles and features on the site.

So let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
New York Giants 61 37 60.7% 267 1.9 24 39.3% 97 0.6 21.0
Philadelphia Eagles 69 42 60.9% 253 0.9 27 39.1% 108 0.9 19.5

Look for the Giants to execute their typical play distribution on the road in Philadelphia this week. The passing game will be slightly more productive than usual with an increase in yardage and their opportunity for two touchdown passes. The running game will also find some success with an increase in yardage and an improved chance for a rushing score. The Giants pass 59% of the time in the red zone.

The Eagles will also execute their typical play distribution against the division rival Giants this week. The passing game will produce their typical yardage and chance for one touchdown pass. The running game will fall short of their typical yardage with a reduced chance for a rushing score. The Eagles pass 55% of the time in the red zone.

Increased Opportunities:

  • Eli Manning and the Giants passing game (Odell Beckham) (+)
  • Giants running game (+) – Hard to recommend either back (Rashad Jennings or Paul Perkins) with them splitting carries
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NFL Value Index – Week 15

Three French hens, two turtle doves, and a partridge in a pear… Oh, sorry, it’s that time of the year I suppose… I have this thing that happens to me where I get songs stuck in my head, and they play on repeat over and over again. Usually, if I go listen to the song, […]

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NBA – Industry Expert Consensus – December 21st

Wednesday is shaping up as an interesting night of NBA action with eight games on the slate with seven teams playing the second game of a back-to-back (Pelicans, Cavaliers, Bucks, Grizzlies, Rockets, Jazz and Blazers). The slate also features a lot of potentially close games with seven points as the biggest Vegas spread tonight.

The numbers in the parenthesis are the number of experts that picked that player to give you more context as to the gaps between players and the tiers. Also listed projected ownership percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help determine which players will be the chalk and which players could be a good low owned contrarian play.

Be sure to sign up for our Premium Content to get the NBA Industry Consensus picks on Wednesday and Friday.

Here are the Industry Consensus picks for tonight…

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NBA – Weighted Consensus – December 21

Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the NBA where we publish a more in-depth version of the NBA Consensus rankings every day that takes into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.

To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.

Be sure to sign up for our Premium Content to find out which high-priced Stud sits atop the experts’ list for Wednesday.

Here is the NBA Weighted Consensus list for December 21:

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